Modelagem espacial de processos decisórios em gestão de recursos hídricos com tratamento de incertezas.

Abstract

The decision making modeling in water resources management has several uncertainties related to requirements of multiple and integrated knowledge, complexity and the natural randomness of water management The objectives in this research are the development of a spatial modeling of decision making processes in water resources management considering information of several types and to make the uncertainty treatment in this modeling. Hie chosen area in the research refers to a coastal area in urbanization stage. This area presents great complexity in its water resources management. The decision making processes are running in a Spatial Decision Support System using a Geographic Information System environment integrated to a Groundwater How Model. The methodology used in uncertainty treatment is obtained through a hybrid mathematical process: the Fuzzy Sets and the Probability Theory using Monte Carlo method associated to the Geostatistic method. The Fuzzy Sets is sufficient and favorable, easy to treat the subjectivity and uncertainty of data. The Monte Carlo method is suitable to uncertainty treatment of stochastic data processed in the Groundwater Flow Model. This proceeds associated to a Geostatistic method represents the spatial uncertainties of the parameter in the model calibration process