Estimativa e análise do crescimento da demanda de água considerando cenários de uso e ocupação do solo.

Abstract

The expansion of medium and large cities has been a concern of many researchers in urban area, because unplanned urban growth causes numerous impacts on service infrastructure of a city, especially in water distribution systems, which are directly associated with people's quality of life. In order to provide indicators for the municipal and water companies, this study aimed to estimate and analyze the growth of water demand using as input the use and current land cover and two future scenarios (short period, t = 5 years,and long-term, t = 10 years), produced from data collected in the field of study and simulation of land use changes in the model Dinamica EGO. The methodology adopted in this work comprises the following steps: 1) data acquisition, in which all data used in the research were collected, 2) spatial modeling of land use, in which the Geographic Information System (GIS) and dynamic model of spatial Dinamica EGO in the generation of the current situation and future scenarios were used, 3) modeling of water consumption, in which it was estimated the current water consumption and future scenarios of short and long term; and 4) Validation of the consumption data water, in which the data of values for water consumption estimated by the proposed method and those measured by the local water company were compared. In this sense, the map was generated from the current occupation of the study area and land use maps of current and future scenarios. It was also obtained the estimation of water consumption for the current land use, future scenario of short-term and long-term future scenario, in which a growing demand for water by about 20% was determined.