Simulação hidrológica na bacia do alto Paraíba com efeito da variabilidade do clima.

Abstract

The natural resources of the semi-arid zones, which are highly vulnerable to the variation of climate, tend to be scarce and are easily damaged by human action (land use) and also by the alterations in the evaporation and precipitation standards, with frequent occurrence of droughts and, as a result, reduction of water supply. The study of the variability of climatic factors and land use, and the possible impacts caused by them in the semi-arid region of the Northeast of Brazil, are of great importance since they directly affect the formation and generation of the runoff in the catchments of the region. In this research, the effects of the variability of the precipitation, evaporation and land use on the simulated water discharge of several catchments in the region of Alto Paratba - PB are studied. The study is based on the application of the distributed model NAVMO, which was first validated for the region of the study and, after that, used for the simulation of different scenarios. The results show that the model simulates the water flow reasonably well, wich is affected by the combined effects of precipitation and evaporation. The precipitation, alone, is the most important factor affecting the discharge, with mean variation (volumes and peaks in relation to the mean values) between 0,012 and 3.59. The evaporation has the least effect on the flow.