Associação da variabilidade hídrica do açude Epitácio Pessoa e a autocorrelação espacial dos casos notificados por dengue em Campina Grande-PB.

Abstract

In recent years, the proliferation of the Aedes aegypti mosquito has increased, mainly in urban areas, thus causing successive episodes of epidemics throughout the country. Some factors contribute to the proliferation of Aedes aegypti, such as water scarcity and the lack of coverage of the supply network. Given the above, this study aimed to analyze the influence of water variability of the Epitácio Pessoa reservoir on the proliferation of Aedes aegypti and the occurrence of dengue cases in the municipality of Campina Grande / PB, from January 2014 to December 2017 It is a descriptive ecological study and a quantitative approach. The study population was represented by the universe of cases notified / confirmed by dengue. Epidemiological data were obtained from the Paraíba State Health Secretariat, entomological data from the Campina Grande Environmental Surveillance Secretariat and data from the Epitácio Pessoa Reservoir were obtained from the Paraíba State Water Management Agency (AESA). It was observed during the study period that type A2 deposits were the main sites identified with larvae of the Aedes aegypti mosquito. The Spearman test showed a negative correlation between the volume of the Epitácio Pessoa Reservoir and the Breteau Index. Thus, it was possible to observe the influence of the variation in the volume of the weir due to the decrease in water levels, in the increase of larval density in Campina Grande. Regarding the Building Infestation Index of the neighborhoods of Campina Grande, they were up to three times higher than the limit recommended by the Ministry of Health, this result becomes an indicator of risk of epidemic for the neighborhoods of the city. According to the methodology used, positive spatial autocorrelation was observed in some neighborhoods of Campina Grande, which warns of the increase in the larval index of Aedes aegypti. Fact that results from the permanence of deposits at ground level, used for water storage. In this sense, it is observed that the visualization of these locations shows the environmental vulnerability and the probability of the population of these neighborhoods to be susceptible to diseases transmitted by Aedes aegypti. Thus, the need to invest in the efficient management of the use of the waters of the Epitácio Pessoa reservoir is highlighted, consequently guaranteeing the regularization of supply without the need for water storage. Keywords: Aedes aegypti; Dengue; Water scarcity; Spatial statistics.