Estimativa da arrecadação própria municipal: um estudo da previsão dos impostos de um município paraibano e de um município potiguar através das séries temporais.

Abstract

Budget planning instruments, such as the Multi-Year Plan, which intends to predict revenues and expenses of the executive branch during its four-year term, are very important for transparency in public administration. From this, the Law of Budgetary Guidelines is elaborated with the objective to define goals and guidelines to be executed within a year. In turn, the Annual Budget Law, aims to achieve the objectives, from the establishment of expenses and forecast revenue. The budget is controlled by tools that can consciously manage public spending through PPA, LDO and LOA. It is known that municipal taxes are of extreme importance in order to avoid reliance on financial transfers from the federal and state government and avoid indebtedness. Emphasizing the Imposto Predial Territorial Urbano – IPTU (Urban Territorial Property Tax), the Imposto sobre Serviços de Qualquer Natureza – ISS (Tax on Services of any kind) and the Imposto sobre a Transmissão de Bens Imóveis e de Direitos a eles Relativos – ITBI (Tax on the Transmission of Real Estate and Rights to them relative). The present study aims to analyze the values related to the taxes collected from the municipalities of Uiraúna (PB) and Luís Gomes (RN) for the period from 2013 to 2016, based on the time series in order to project the values to be collected in the year of 2017. The methodology adopted is classified, as to the nature, in applied, as regards the objectives, in exploratory, as to the technical procedures used, in documentary and bibliographical, and as to the approach of the problem, in quantitative concretizing the forcast before the rating of the Series of the data analyzed, before the Spearman Correlation Coefficient Test, in Stationary and Non-Stationary. After analyzing the data, there was a considerable decrease in the tax collection of some city taxes of Luís Gomes and an increase in the tax collection of all taxes analyzed in the city of Uiraúna for the year 2017. One possible explanation for this increase/decrease of tax revenues is the lack of qualification and hiring of specialized professionals and whenever there is demand to hire new employees to meet the need to deal with tax issues.