Previsão para a arrecadação tributária mediante as séries temporais: um estudo sobre a projeção dos impostos de competência de municípios localizados próximos à fronteira do Estado da Paraíba.

Abstract

With the constitution of 1988, the Municipalities began to have autonomy in the collection of certain taxes. In order to plan the government's actions, the public power began to use three essential tools for aid. The Pluri Annual Plan (PPA), the Budgetary Guidelines Law (LDO) and the Annual Budget Law (LOA). It is well known that the collection of taxes, such as: Tax on Services of any kind – ISS, Urban Land Tax – IPTU and the Tax on the Transmission of Real Property and Rights Relating to ITBI are of extreme importance for the Municipalities do not depend only on federal transfers. The objective of this study is to analyze the values related to taxes collected from the municipalities of São José do Egito (PE) and Monteiro (PB) for the period from 2013 to 2017, based on the Time Series, in order to project the values to be collected in the year 2018. The methodology adopted is classified, as to the nature, in applied, as to the objectives, in exploratory, as to the technical procedures used, in documentary and bibliographical, and as to the approach of the problem, in quantitative terms, concretizing the through the classification of the series of data analyzed in Stationary and Non-Stationary. After the analysis, it was verified that the projected values for the year 2018, obtained a constancy, both for the Municipality of São José do Egito and Monteiro. For an increase in the collection of taxes, it is necessary to make investment and qualification of the professionals so that it has an efficient collection.