Desenvolvimento de um modelo parcimonioso para a empresa Vale.

Abstract

The more competitive organizations become each time, have seen that, each detail are a basic point for its development, in this manner, the companies need to use its information, in order to reach its objectives and goals, being that these must be on to the enterprise strategy. Thus to manage an organization she is necessary to know it for complete. In this manner it is of utmost importance to the use of forecasts and the determined esteem of changeable, for contribution of the success of the activities to be carried through in the future. The used research was bibliographical and the documentary one where it was become fulfilled for the extraction of the data of the company in the site of the Fundamentus and the CVM in the period of 2001 the 2009. The objective of this work consists of the determination of a model parsimonious, capable to analyze and to diagnosis the behavior of the financial pointers considered of the Cia Valley. Of this form, this work has for purpose the evaluation (esteem and forecast) of the pointers, through a parsimonious model of regression, that was determined using criteria as the coefficient of determination R 2 and amount of used variable. The results presented in this research had inquired that, inside of the 07 models gotten for the tool statistics, it approximately determined that the choice of the room regression model got the one best one resulted correlating the Tax of Return of the Equity with the excessively indicating ones used in the model, presenting 75% in its edge of explanation. Therefore model 04 was chosen by presenting one of the best coefficients of determination and using few variable, allowing the decision borrower to have security in the esteem and forecast of the Tax of Liquid Return.