Impacto das mudanças climáticas na produção das culturas de algodão e mamona e implicações na sustentabilidade do estado da Bahia.

Abstract

Daily times series of temperature and rainfall were used to identify and analyze the impacts of climatic changes in the castor bean and cotton crops production, at Bahia state by using climatic change indexes and climatic sceneries. The used methodology have identified positive trends in climatic changes for the entire territory of Bahia, besides of a reduction in the number of rainy days and an increase of the daily rainfall intensity and duration. It was also observed an increase of maximum and minimum daily temperature, mainly in the semi-arid region of the State. It was identified an impact of the climatic variability in the castor bean and cotton crops production for the years of strong El Niño and La Niña, through the correlation between crops production and TSM anomalies in the Niño 1+2, Niño 3, Niño 4 and Niño 3+4 regions), in the period from 1990 to 2007. It was analyzed the social and economical development indexes (IDE and IDS) to individual county and identified territories as defined by SEI (2000), which showed an increase in the period from 1998 to 2006 for all the territories, particularly for the regions of castor bean (Irecê) and cotton (west) producers. However, in the industrialized regions: Metropolitan and Recôncavo presented the highest indexes values of the State while the castor bean crop producing regions presented an increase in the those indexes throughout the studied period, that shows a significant improvement in the sustainable indicators of the productive county. The sceneries of climatic changes prepared with increase of 1, 2 and 30C in the globe average air temperature for the period from 1970 to 2006 indicated changes in air temperature and evapotranspiration in Bahia state for the next 100 years, according to IPCC prediction, what will cause an impact in the agriculture results, particularly in the castor bean and cotton crops production. Finally, it is suggested a special attention of the state planning officies for the development of projects of public policies that contribute to the regional agriculture development, but that produce a sustainable development of the Bahia state. Thus, is the following conclusions were established: there are climatic changes trends in the Bahia state; the crop production has been affected by the climatic variability; the development indexes are intrinsically connected and are increasing in the State.