Impactos econômico-financeiros das variações climáticas sobre os cultivos de arroz e soja no estado do Tocantis.

Abstract

The main objective of this research has been to evaluate the economic-financial impacts of possible climatic variations on the area fit for the cultivation of soybean and dryland rice in the State of Tocantins. As starting point we utilized the air temperature increase projections presented by IPCC(2007), through the scenarios: optimistic–B1(+1.8ºC), intermediate–A1B(+2.8ºC) and pessimistic– A1F1(+4.0ºC). As a function of the strong uncertainties about the rainfall standard, a variation of 10% was considered, associated to such scenarios. The methodology was based on three distinct stages. The first one was to delimitate and quantify the fit area from the hydrologic balance and geoprocessing techniques; the second was to determine the potential gross revenue based on mean productivity data, mean price and fit area (low climatic risk); and the third one was to estimate the possible economic-financial impacts obtained by the difference of the estimated potential gross revenue between the temperature increase scenarios and the present climatic situation. According to the results, one perceives that the possible climatic variations may change the agricultural outlook of Tocantins, depending on the intensity of the variation. One verifies that the increase of the offer of water resources may in some cases inhibit the effects caused by some air temperature increases on the area fit for cultivation in mean texture soils. Therefore, agricultural practices should be sought that improve the soils’ capacity of retaining water resources. The results further show that the economic-financial impacts (economic losses) have been stronger for sowing at the beginning and end of the cultivation season.