Análise da variabilidade do vento no Estado da Paraíba.

Abstract

This research aimed to investigate the spatial and temporal pattern of the variability of wind speed in the state of Paraíba using multivariate analysis techniques from January 2000 to December 2010. As well as the power density estimate for the locality São João do Cariri for the year 2007, in order to analyze the characteristics of this variable for that region. Initially, the data from the CFSR reanalysis was evaluated with INMET observations, used in the study by means of statistical evaluative methods. Where the CFSR reanalysis was representative when validated. The lowest coefficient of determination was observed for the location of Areia, being directly related to the orographic effects. It was observed that the lowest values of wind speed over Paraíba occur in the first semester, between summer and autumn and the highest values in the second semester, especially in spring. Multivariate techniques (Factor Analysis and Cluster Analysis) were employed in order to identify homogeneous regions of wind variability in the state's microregions. Two factors were able to explain almost 100% of all variance, the first being correlated with the period of lower wind speeds, and the second with the period of higher speeds. Seven homogeneous groups of wind speed were identified, denoting the interior of the state with the highest intensity winds when compared to the other regions. The variability of wind speed and direction in the municipality of São João do CaririParaíba was also verified, as well as its extrapolation to different heights and the wind power densities for the region at different levels were estimated. From the results obtained, it was observed that the lowest values of wind speed occur primarily in the morning shift, and in the rainy season of the locality, while the highest values occur from ten o'clock in the morning and continue until the evening , being present in great intensities in the months of the dry period, for both. The predominant directions were southeast, with seasonal variations during the study period. The study characterized the second period of the year as the precursor to the highest values of available wind power densities.