Análise e aplicação de métodos de previsão de demanda: um estudo de caso em uma organização do setor têxtil.

Abstract

A demand forecast model correctly applied in an organization allows numerous benefits for it, since when associated with other management and control tools, they guarantee more accurate data on the future behavior of demands, helping in decision making, strategic planning and control. of supplies. In the study in question, demand forecasting is essentially used as a tool to assist managers in production planning in a textile company. Thus, the present research aimed to analyze a demand forecasting method that would suit the demands of the studied company, in order to improve the company's productive management. In this way, the data were structured for a better understanding and analysis of their characteristics and from these, demand forecasting methods were selected that allowed seasonality and trend characteristics. The methods applied in the study were: Least Squares Method, Seasonal Adjustment and Winter's Method. Then, with the models applied, the data resulting from each method were compared, in order to designate the most appropriate model for the demand data. After analyzing the results, the Winter Method proved to be more adequate to perform the demand forecasts in the study, since it presented the most satisfactory results among the methods compared.