Cenários de balanço hídrico no Ceará decorrentes de mudanças climáticas.

Abstract

This research aims to study the changes caused in the water balance components associated with acertados of climate change IPCC scenarios A2 and BZ, increased temperature by 3.0 o C and 1.5 o C respectively, and reduced precipitation and increased 20%, analyzed for the state of Ceara. It was used as reference the current conditions and the climatic interannual variability during an episode of La Nina and another of El Nino. Climatological data of air temperature and total rainfall used in this study obtained from the database of UACA (Academic Department of Atmospheric Sciences). To develop the water balance1 we used the method of Tl'iornthwaíte and Mather ( l957). The projected results showed a trend towards drier conditions, reduced water storage in soil and water surplus, increase in actual evapotranspiration is less than the potential evaporation, producing a decrease in relative humidity in the atmosphere in the state of Ceara. More-over. one can also observe an increase in the index of aridity index and a decrease in effective moisture, changing climatic classification of the region. Interanmial variability were also found in the components of water balance through the analysis of these components in water La Nír'ia years and El Nino; The parameters of the water balance behaved as expected for the year of El Nino and La Nina, or ETP, ETR, EXC ups and la, and Irn ARMi low for the year of El Nião, and the opposite “for the years La nina.