Cenários de tendências de índices para monitoramento e detecção de mudanças climáticas para o Estado da Bahia.

Abstract

The objective of this work was to elaborate the sceneries for next 20 years of tendencies of indices for monitoring and detecting climate change over Bahia State. Also made a hindcast for the period from 1962 to 1980.The daily precipitation data used were of 71 sites. In the analysis of the results the sites considered were those whose tendency of the indexes presented statistics p ≤ 0.1. The RClimdex was used to calculate the indices. Starting from the obtained tendencies the projections of the future sceneries for 5 indexes weve. The values found were compared with the current ones. An increase in the total annual precipitation, in the intensity of the rains, in the number of days with precipitation higher than 50 mm/day and dry consecutive days. Therefore, we conclude that the rainy period, in the state of Bahia, it will be shorter that the current ones, however with more intense rains and less days with rain, while the dry period will be longer and with larger number of days without rain.