Modelagem dinâmica e cenários urbanos de demanda de água: simulações em Campina Grande-PB.

Abstract

Dynamic models based on cellular automata are used as a viable alternative for land-use analysis in urban areas. In this sense, the objective of this work is to estimate the water demand in future scenarios of land use and occupation and high-building increase, using spatial analysis and dynamic modeling based on cellular automata, using as a case study two districts of Campina Grande, Catolé and Sandra Cavalcante. In situ data on land-use and high-building from 2011 and 2018 were used to identify the process of change in these neighborhoods. A set of static and dynamic variables related to the process were selected to produce a simulation of the change of land use and occupation, as well as changes in verticalization for the year 2018. The internal parameters of the model also supported this simulation. It is presented three scenarios of land use and occupation and verticalization for the years 2040, 2070 and 2100, identifying a tendency of occupation with some specific characteristics such as the replacement of residential areas new buildings with multiple floors (residential, business, or services). Due to the increase of urban occupation, the water demands for attending to the population also increase. A comparison of future scenarios considering conventional and rational water uses (using saving mechanisms) is also simulated in order to provide data for a more resilient urban infrastructure planning upon the water scarcity which is so common in this city.