Prognóstico de chuva para o município de Alagoa Nova - PB.

Abstract

Monthly precipitation probabilities were computed for the município o f Alagoa Nova, P. In addition, from values of the moisture availability indez (MAI), the climatic and productivity classifications o f the area were done. The analysis o f average rainfall data indicated that precipitation distribution throughout the year is very uneven. In fact, 70% o f the total annual rainfall fa ll on 5 months o f the year, from march to july. The rainier months are may and june 164 and 157mm, respectively. At 75% probability level the eoqpected amounts o f precipitation exceed 40mm during 6 month (march to august) and the MAI values are higher than 0,23. This means that in Alagoa Nova is possible to grow crops without too much risk o f failure due to drought i f planting dates are adequately planned. Because o f certain crops, usually reised in this area, are severely attacked by pathogens when planted late in the sea son (high humidity), it is recommended to introduce deseases resistante varieties in order to delay planting to dates ranging from april 15 to may 15. This would allow to do harvest during a period o f the year when precipitation is not a limiting factor neither for quality nor for quantity o f the final products.