Variabilidade espacial e temporal da precipitação pluvial e eventos extremos no estado da Paraíba.

Abstract

Rainfall is the most important climatic element for the tropical region, especially for the semi arid region of Paraíba where several activities depend exclusively on the use of water. Understanding the existing variability of rainfall with the characterization of homogeneous areas is of fundamental importance for development, planning and management of water resources in the region. With the premise of this importance, this dissertation research seeks to analyze the spatial and temporal variability of rainfall and quantify the thresholds for extreme precipitation events in different locations in the State of Paraíba and their impacts on society. A series of data starting in January 1994 until December 2022 was used, referring to 124 locations in the monitoring network of the Executive Water Management Agency of the State of Paraíba. Cluster and spatial dependence analyzes were carried out using the Ward and Moran Local Index methods, and trends using the Pettitt and Mann-Kendall homogeneity tests. To estimate the return time and frequency of extreme rainfall, the Extreme Value Theory was adopted. The results suggest the existence of seven homogeneous groups, with interannual variability, (the extreme events are associated with the action of the main meteorological systems, the Intertropical Convergence Zone and the High Level Cyclonic Vortex). They also indicate that it is possible to plan and manage water resources as long as there is predictability of rainfall variability in the state of Paraíba.