Análise do potencial eólico do Estado da Paraíba utilizando modelos de mesoescala.

Abstract

Numerical simulations performed with the BRAMS model and the WRF model were used to analyze the wind energy potential of the Paraíba state and to point the regions where the behavior of the winds is more favorable to electricity generation. Simulation results performed for a period of three years suggest that the wind, during all four seasons, tends to be more intense in its innermost part in comparison to other regions and that spring is the season with more intense winds. A case study was conducted for the month of September 2010, in which it was compared simulated wind speed data with observed data collected at three heights of standardized anemometric towers for wind studies, installed at different areas. The towers are located in the regions of Agreste, Borborema and Sertão. Results indicate that the analyzed areas present daily mean power density above 100 W/m2 at 10 m, increasing with height. In addition, results show that for Agreste the WRF follows the variations of the average speed more accurately to the heights of 70 m and 100 m, while the Borborema cycles reproduced by the BRAMS were closer the observed cycles. For Sertão the WRF gives a better representation of the cycles obtained to the heights of 10 and 100 m. According to the statistical analysis the largest errors were found for Borborema and lowest for Sertão, both at 10 m height for the results of the WRF. In general, the observed and simulated data for both models show a strong correlation with statistical significance of 99% according to the statistical test.