Regionalização hidrológica nas regiões do médio e baixo rio Paraíba/PB utilizando vazões simuladas com o modelo distribuído NAVMO.

Abstract

This dissertation shows and discuss the rainfall-runoff modelling results for the upper and lower parts of the Paraíba/PB river basin, as well as the simulations results of long-term time series (1911-1983) utilizing the distributed model NAVMO, which was calibrated based on observed short period of data at some catchments in the region. Long-term simulations were utilized to establish regional hydrologic functions. The simulations were submitted to tests of homogeneity and consistency such as the double mass suggested by Schulz, the t-test of Student, the F-test of Snedecor, the non-parametric test of Wilcoxon, and typical distributions of probability investigated such as Gauss, Gama, Pearson III in the case of mean annual discharges, and ln-Gauss, Gama, Gumbel and Pearson III in the case of maximum annual discharges. Curves of permanence were also investigated. The results showed that the simulated series are homogeneous, and according with the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, all probability distributions were accepted at 5% of significance, except the distribution of Gauss for the mean annual discharges. Simple and multiple regressions were established between hydrologic variables, and physical and climatic catchment characteristics, with good results. The parameters of the curves of permanence and the distribution of probability regionally accepted, Gama, were regionalized through maps of isolines for the hole Paraíba river basin, with which it is possible to determine the discharge with a certain level of guarantee, and maximum discharges with chosen return period at any place in the region of the Paraíba river basin.