Urban hydrological challenges: spatial interrelations between LULC and water resources.

Abstract

As urbanization accelerates globally, cities face increasing challenges in managing water resources amid changes in land use and land cover (LULC), climate pressures, and social inequalities. While some regions struggle with water scarcity, others contend with recurrent flooding, underscoring the urgency of addressing water-related vulnerabilities through integrated urban planning and resource management. In this context, this thesis investigates urban hydrological challenges arising from the spatial interrelations between LULC changes and water resources, specifically through the analysis of two contrasting urban contexts: Campina Grande (Brazil), characterized by water scarcity, and Washington, D.C. (USA), known for recurrent urban flooding. The objective is to assess how LULC changes affect water availability and increase urban flood vulnerabilities. In Campina Grande, water scarcity issues are explored through sentiment analysis, highlighting the social and structural impacts of droughts. Spatial analysis and simulation methods are used to estimate domestic water demand under demographic changes and urbanization pressures. A sensitivity analysis of LULC models identifies the factors influencing urbanization dynamics and their implications for water resource availability and quality. In Washington, D.C., the research evaluates flood hazards exacerbated by LULC transformations, employing spatial autocorrelation techniques to identify clusters of vulnerability and assess sustainable urban drainage systems. These practices are further analyzed from an environmental justice perspective, examining spatial disparities in infrastructure distribution. The cross-city analysis emphasizes a fundamental premise: regardless of development levels or water availability, urban areas worldwide face challenges in sustainably managing the LULC–water nexus, whether addressing scarcity (as in Brazil) or flooding (as in the USA). The integration of case studies enables reflection on how territorial transformations associated with urbanization differentially influence water resources in contexts with diverse socio-environmental realities, offering replicable methodologies and support tools for sustainable urban planning and the development of more resilient cities in the face of climate pressures and the challenges of integrated water management.