Análise estatística de chuvas intensas na bacia hidrográfica do rio Paraíba.

Abstract

The research was carried through in the scope of the basin of the river Paraíba, to identify the space and secular variation of intense rains of 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 days. 33 used ranks had been used, distributed well and covering the sub-basins of the Paraíba. From the data of the cited ranks previously, the monthly climatology for the region, shown in maps, relief of the region, verified was calculated the trend and how much each intense rain of 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 days represents in relation the climatologically average. The results also gotten had shown concentration of the maximum values of the space variation of intense rains in the east of the sub-basin of the low Paraíba, south of the sub-basin of the Taperoá and center/north of the sub -basin of the high Paraíba and in the space variation the months of bigger intense rain occurrences in the basin of the river Paraíba had been the months of January, February, March and April. These results suggest that VCAS and ZCIT are the ma in responsible systems for the precipitation in the region at this determined time. Soon after this stage, was used "to cluster it analysis" to identify groups of homogeneous intense rains for the basin of the river Paraíba, for then calculating the precip itation based on a period of return of 100 years. After that, the Distribution of Probability of Gumbel was adjusted to intense rains and used the test of Kolmogorov-Smirnov to verify the adjustment, proving that the Gumbel distribution is really appropriate for extreme values of precipitation for the ranks of the studied area.