Construções de cenários de possíveis mudanças climáticas para Paraíba e Rio Grande do Norte.

Abstract

In this study we tried find out possible changes in the climatic hydric balance components associated with scenarios of climate of the Intergovernmental Painel on Climate Change (IPCC): increase of 1.5°C and 3.0°C the annual average air temperature and increase and decrease in 20% of average annual rainfall for the states of Rio Grande do Norte (RN) and Paraíba (PB). Were taken as reference the normal climatological conditions and analyzed the interannual climate variability over the years with the occurrence of La Niña and El Niño. The climatological data of air temperature and total rainfall used in this study are from Academic Unit of Atmospheric Sciences (AUAS). The method of Thornthwaite and Mather (1957) was used for the preparation of hydric balance. The results in the projections showed a trend towards driest climate, reduction in soil moisture, reduced river flows, decrease in relative humidity in the atmosphere of the two states. Interannual variability was also found in the components of hydric balance through the analysis of these hydric components in years with La Niña and one with El Niño. It was observed that during the periods of the El Niño, the atmospheric conditions in the states of the RN e PB were drier than the climatological average, while in years with La Niña the atmospheric conditions were wettest. It was checked that the trends found in the scenarios was beyond the interannual variability in the actual climate.