Análise custo/volume/lucro em condições de incerteza: um estudo de caso na M colagens indústria e comércio Ltda.

Abstract

The present study consists of applying the cost/volume/profit analysis under uncertainty in an industry of small businesses of the textile sector, which operates in the field of Collages. In methodological terms, this work is considered an applied research with quantitative approach; as regards the research purposes is considered descriptive; as for the technical procedures, we used the methodology of case study. To meet the proposed objective, the joint application of two statistical tests: test of asymmetry of population and population kurtosis test. Was collected, handled and analyzed a sample of 24 sales months, monetarily corrected by the IGP-M. In addition, we used data on the selling prices, costs and production. Then they applied the concepts of balance and contribution margin, generating, from your analysis, information of great relevance for decision making. As regards results, these provided to describe the relationship of the current cost structure to the sales volume of the M collages, the uncertainty surrounding the scope of the accounting balance point. Before this, the application of statistical tests show that the sample comes from a population considered asymmetrical and leptocúrtica. Therefore, the hypothesis that the population from which the sample is normally distributed was rejected, considering a confidence level of 95%, making necessary the sample modeling according to the triangular distribution of probability. The study showed that the observation of the break-even point will be very useful to evaluate the returns associated with different levels of sales; Furthermore, the inclusion of uncertainty in the calculation of this, adds utility to this concept for managerial purposes to enable a more realistic view of future scenarios.