Uma avaliação do desempenho dos modelos de previsão de tempo para as regiões agreste/litoral, cariri/curimataú e sertão da Paraíba.

Abstract

In this work, studies are conducted to discuss the performances of the main meteorological models used in the forecast of weather in Brazil: GLOBAL/CPTEC, ETA/CPTEC, MBAR/INMET and NCEP/INMET and at the same time contribute to the improvement of the weather forecast. The studied area was the State of Paraiba, which was divided into three different areas: Agreste/Litoral, Cariri/Curimatau and Sertao. The study covered the period from January to December of 2002, and the main analyzed variable is precipitation. During this period the daily prognostic of rain of each model mentioned was compared with the data observed in the pluviometric stations of the State, as well as the prognostics of cloudiness with images of the GOES-8 satellite. The results showed that in terms of rain prognostic, in general, the GLOBAL/CPTEC model had the best performance among the analyzed models. On the other hand, with relation to the prognostic of cloud cover, the model ETA/CPTEC as well as MBAR/INMET presented good performances. Before this, it could be developed regionaly more studies in order to improve the knowledge of the local conditions and obtaining better prognostics of the quality of the cloudiness to obtain better precipitation prognostics.