Influência de variáveis meteorológicas sobre a incidência do dengue, meningite e pneumonia em Campina Grande e João Pessoa.

Abstract

Data of temperature, relative humidity of the air and precipitation during the period of 1992 to 2000 in Campina Grande (07°13'S; 35°52'W; 508m) and Joao Pessoa (07°07'S; 034°53'W; 05m) were used with the objective of identifying the influence of these meteorological elements on the incidence of Dengue Fever, Meningitis and Pneumonia in these places. Initially, coefficients of monthly incidence per 10,000 inhabitants for each disease were determined, which were related to the meteorological elements: average air temperature (T), maximum temperature (Tx), minimum temperature (Tn), relative air humidity (UR) and precipitation (?) of the studied period. Precipitation, Dengue Fever, Meningitis and Pneumonia were used in monthly totals, and the temperatures (minimum, average and maximum) and the relative air humidity were used in monthly averages. Intra-annual climatic variations (monthly, and by seasons of the year) were observed for all of the period studied Simple regression analyses were used to verify the function of better adjustment, and then multiple linear regressions with all the meteorological elements contained in the model, with the objective of knowing the maximum in which these apply on each disease studied. Finally, the "stepwise" multiple regression method was used to maintain only the meteorological elements which contributed most to the incidence of the studied diseases in the model. The adequacy of the coefficients of correlation was verified by the hypothesis test, F, for the significance level of 5%. The results showed that there was influence of the meteorological elements in the incidence of Meningitis and Pneumonia, with R2 0,12 and 0,18 respectively, and of Dengue Fever, Meningitis and Pneumonia in Joao Pessoa with R2 0,34, 0,25 and 0,23 in this same order. As to the meteorological elements that may be considered predictions of the incidence of the studied diseases, it was verified that for Meningitis and Pneumonia in Campina Grande it is minimum temperature and Joao Pessoa average air temperature; for the incidence of the Dengue Fever, it was maximum temperature and Precipitation in Joao Pessoa, while in Campina Grande no element was considered statistically significant However, atmospheric conditions in the locality of Campina Grande suggest a restriction on the action of the mosquito, which transmits the Dengue Fever, especially when the minimum temperature diminishes considerably, while in Joao Pessoa the atmospheric conditions seem to favor a more rapid spreading of the mosquito and its obtaining the ability to infect. It was noticed that the influence of monthly and seasonal air temperature was more significant on the incidence of these diseases in both places. The meteorological elements considered in this paper, in general contributed to the incidence of Dengue Fever, Meningitis, and Pneumonia in Campina Grande and Joao Pessoa at about 12% to 34%, justifying that aside from meteorological conditions, there are others caused by nutritional, social and the immunological defense conditions of the human organism.