Métodos de identificação e seleção de locais de alto risco de acidentes de trânsito: estudo e recomendações para aplicação em cidades brasileiras.

Abstract

Black spot elimination programs comprise three main steps: identification of hazardous locations, diagnosis of probable causes, treatment of the considered sites. In the identification stage, several methods have been used involving different techniques of varying complexity - numerical, statistical and conflict - combined with different approaches to the severity of accidents. The objective of the work is to characterize in which situations a certain method is appropriate, avoiding, on these occasions, the use of more elaborate procedures that would imply greater cost, without significant gain of precision; It also seeks to identify the risks arising from not adopting these methods and their situations. The methodology employed involves, in a first phase, the study of all methods considering, for each one, their theoretical foundation, the procedures for their application, their advantages and disadvantages, their use in Brazil and abroad. Each method, except for conflicts, is then applied to the data available from 5 Brazilian cities. Also, we compare the results provided by the methods, verifying the changes that occur when the method is changed or when the size of the city varies. Finally, we try to identify deficiencies in the set selected in each case, when considering the frequency of accidents and the risk index of each location. Finally, according to the analyzes performed, findings are presented regarding each method and the use of severity. In addition, it is discussed the use of each method according to the size of the city and the safety standard therein. In conclusion, an alternative method is proposed, combining the number of accidents and the accident rate methods.