Distribuição espacial do número de casos de dengue no Estado da Paraíba utilizando resultados de modelos atmosféricos regionais para precipitação pluviométrica.

Abstract

Studies prove that the performance of both weather and climate on the human life provokes adverse reactions over the health, it is known that a connection do exists between different meteorological situations and the appearance of certain diseases as the dengue, that is a viral disease o f short duration, variable gravity, that it happens in the tropical and subtropical areas, where there are conditions for the development of the mosquito transmitter. The goal of this work is to establish a system that allows to foresee the spatial distribution of cases of primness in the State of Paraiba, for which, the forecast of the seasonal precipitation is accomplished with success by the atmospheric models. For the accomplishment of the forecast of the space distribution of cases of primness it was made a multiple regression using the precipitation foreseen in the State of Paraiba by the Regional Model, total monthly of notified cases of primness in the state for the rainy period and monthly values of the of South Oscillation Index (SOI), SST Anomalies of the Atlantic Ocean North and South, these last ones extracted of Climate Diagnostics Bulletin - CDB of NCEP/USA. The foreseen precipitation mentioned before was obtained starting from the reduction of scale of the global model EC11AM 4.5, for the regional scale through the model RSM (downscaling). The conclusion is that the spatial distribution of the monthly precipitation and the cases of primness foreseen in the State of Paraiba. mainly for the interior and the coast during the period of the study, they evidenced the existent relationship among that meteorological variable and this disease that it is transmitted by vectors that are linked to the climatic variations. With the intention of verifying the error committed in the forecast of the spatial distribution of the cases of primness, the deviations of the forecast were calculated regarding the observations, being used for that, it was divert them medium foreseen and observed of the cases of primness. It was also concluded that the spatial distribution of the deviations showed that the largest deviations occurs in the area of the interior and mainly in the neighborhood of Cajazeiras. For the rural area it was verified low values of the deviations in the months of February, March and April 2001, and that it happened the inverse for the years 2000 and 2002.