Análise da situação das empresas brasileiras do segmento de papel e celulose, com base no modelo de previsão de falência de KANITZ.

Abstract

The management of solvency is important for the continuity of companies in the market. Therefore, the use of discriminant analysis, made possible with the bankruptcy prediction models, the example of Kanitz, Altman, Pereira, Elizabetsky and Matias, can be used as important tool for monitoring and control of propensity to insolvency and therefore for business prosperity. Among the models mentioned, the search results are concentrated in Kanitz model, and to test its applicability companies were chosen to make up the pulp and paper segment, its importance to the Brazilian economy. According to the above, the objective of this work focuses on the investigation of the current situation of Brazilian companies in the pulp and paper segment, listed on the São Paulo stock exchange, based on Kanitz bankruptcy prediction model (analysis discriminant ). Seven companies, which make up the Paper and Pulp segment and have listed shares, participated in the survey: Santher, Celul Irani, Fibria, Suzano Hold Suzano Papel e Klabin S / A. the following data were used: net income, shareholders' equity, current assets, long-term assets, current liabilities, long-term liabilities and inventories, all relevant to the calculation of the ratios required to obtain Kanitz insolvency factor. The period used for data collection matches the quarter of 2008 until the last quarter of 2015. In relation to the processing of data were used: mean standard deviation, frequency percentage, ANOVA single factor test, and Scheffe test. The survey results show that most companies presented solvents; only one company was ranked in the twilight range. One company stood out for getting a 6.76 insolvency factor, and only two others approached thisresult,andtheremainingeconomicallyinferiortoit.