Estudo sobre métodos de previsão de demanda em uma indústria de Laticínios da cidade de Sousa-PB.

Abstract

The constant globalization of the market, coupled with the constant search for meeting customer needs, encourage companies to achieve goals and outline increasingly focused targets the improvement of their activities. The planning and control of production are some of the means used to achieve these goals. Thus, the implementation of a Demand Forecasting System in an organization assists in decision-making and contributes in various ways to the better management of the company and its production capacity. Thus, this study aimed to investigate which demand forecasting method gets better performance in a Dairy industry of the city of Sousa- PB. The research is classified as the goals as exploratory and descriptive; on the technical procedures such as literature and case study, using non-participant observation and interviews for data collection and qualitative procedures for analysis and interpretation of data. In the study, it became clear that the company does not use demand forecasting methods in their activities, making decisions intuitively, based on the expectations and opinions of decision makers. The analysis showed that the model with Moving Average Exponential Smoothing Simple as that presented the highest degree of accuracy in relation to other models tested, with value of MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) 12.68. Thus, this model is the most suitable for the organization forecast demand. During data analysis, some optimization opportunities of the planning system and organizational control through the use of quantitative models demand forecast that assist in planning and organizational control process, from the purchase of raw materials have been raised, to the potentiation production capacity.