SILVA, F. H. L; http://lattes.cnpq.br/2651830253304189; SILVA, Francy Hallyson Lopes da.
Résumé:
The constant globalization of the market, coupled with the constant search for meeting
customer needs, encourage companies to achieve goals and outline increasingly focused
targets the improvement of their activities. The planning and control of production are some
of the means used to achieve these goals. Thus, the implementation of a Demand Forecasting
System in an organization assists in decision-making and contributes in various ways to the
better management of the company and its production capacity. Thus, this study aimed to
investigate which demand forecasting method gets better performance in a Dairy industry of
the city of Sousa- PB. The research is classified as the goals as exploratory and descriptive; on
the technical procedures such as literature and case study, using non-participant observation
and interviews for data collection and qualitative procedures for analysis and interpretation of
data. In the study, it became clear that the company does not use demand forecasting methods
in their activities, making decisions intuitively, based on the expectations and opinions of
decision makers. The analysis showed that the model with Moving Average Exponential
Smoothing Simple as that presented the highest degree of accuracy in relation to other models
tested, with value of MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) 12.68. Thus, this model is the
most suitable for the organization forecast demand. During data analysis, some optimization
opportunities of the planning system and organizational control through the use of
quantitative models demand forecast that assist in planning and organizational control
process, from the purchase of raw materials have been raised, to the potentiation production
capacity.
