Análise de viabilidade por meio da simulação de Monte Carlo voltada ao setor imobiliário em comparação a alternativas de investimentos.

Abstract

When investors decide to apply in a given capital investment, seek to achieve a return, and for this, it is essential to make an assessment of the desired active to ensure that investment in focus can effectively provide the expected return. Therefore it was sought to achieve the following overall objective: To analyze how it behaves a real estate investment as to the feasibility, by Monte Carlo method, when compared to alternative low risk investments. To find a satisfactory answer, a case study was prepared, that through real appreciation percentage of three apartments, located in the cities of São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Fortaleza, respectively, the continuation of these percentages were simulated generating 100 possible economic scenarios, which were the basis for the calculation and analysis of cash flows, Net Present Value, Payback and Internal Rate of Return. When evaluating the results can affirm the viability of the three properties, even when compared to the alternative of fixed income investments, and the role played by investment analysis in this study became more reliable the decision to invest, not by reduce risk or by doing a project becomes viable, but to provide the investor the necessary information so that he himself judge whether the results are consistent with what is expected, and even make you knowledgeable of the different variations that may occur, as a way to prepare it for unwanted situations that may affect you, and attitudes to be taken to increase its capital.