Modelo de construção de cenários para planejamento energético de empresas geradoras de energia eólica: a incorporação de uma lógica socioambiental corporativa.

Abstract

Studies that portray the current scenario and future perspectives involving the theme of energy planning and sustainability in contemporary society have found the challenge of dealing with insecurity and the lack of systematized information. When projecting the socio-environmental impacts caused and the limitations of the energy resources, it is observed the necessity of a more sustainable and corporate planning. Based on this principle, it is evident that in order to help the elaboration of strategies in environments marked by complexity, as in the case of the energy sector, a possible methodological tool is the Scenarios Technique. Prospecting scenarios is not an exercise in prediction, but rather an effort to make plausible and internally consistent descriptions of possible future situations, presenting the conditioning factors of the path between the current situation and a given future scenario, highlighting the factors most relevant to decisions that Need to be taken. In view of this understanding, this thesis has as main objective to create a model of construction of scenarios for energy planning in companies of viable wind power generation to be incorporated in the Energy Planning, taking as reference principles and criteria of corporate socio-environmental sustainability. As for the methodological procedures, the research is classified as qualitative, of explanatory / descriptive nature. With regard to the proposed model, it was built on existing ideas and theories about energy planning with the inclusion of a corporate socio-environmental logic and the construction of scenarios as tools for the formulation of business strategies. For its validation, the model was applied to a group of 64 professionals belonging to the main representative bodies of the national electrical sector and professional researchers - opinion formers; In which qualitative research was carried out. For the filtering of the data, an unprecedented model of the Wind Generation Planning Scenario composed of 11 dimensions and 38 indicators was elaborated. For the construction of the scenarios, the database was divided into 03 (three) groups of specialists: normal, optimistic and pessimistic. For each group, the arithmetic means of the indicators, the dimensions and the general average were calculated. The model was validated according to the methodological criteria used (invariant factors and critical uncertainties). The invariant factors were the guiding thread of the new model; Excluding one dimension and 13 indicators. From the validation, the Model of Sceneries of Wind Generation Planning – MCPGE began to be composed by 10 dimensions and 25 indicators. As a result, it can be affirmed that in the face of the "new" composition, attention must be paid to the context of socioeconomic, political and institutional changes that are already under way and those that are to come. In this aspect, the greatest challenge in developing a scenario vision, be it "normal", "optimistic" or "pessimistic" is to imagine changes in current trends and paradigms, since the goal is not to predict the future, Nor to draw a probable or desirable future. The objective is to prospect through the application of the scenarios technique, the creative extrapolation to the reflection before a significant range of conditions and future consequences, so as to make it possible to glimpse in the future the impacts of these criteria and the actions formulated, allowing In order to achieve a better strategic energy planning for wind energy companies in order to reduce unwanted impacts and to create an adequate position in the face of the opportunities presented to the country in the scope of the exploitation of renewable resources, in this case, To wind power.