Recursos hídricos e impactos antrópicos no Semiárido Brasileiro: dinâmica espaço-temporal e cenários preditivos.

Abstract

Water­related studies involve numerous aspects, many highly complex, highlighting the lack of efficient management and the difficulty of having good water access for everybody. This research proposes tools to support future scenarios and modeling, capable of expressing the risk of human activities growing to water security. All study is based on remote sensing products, composed of variables, actors, processes, and land­use trends. The main idea is to simulate landuse and occupation dynamics in the Upper­Course of the Paraíba River basin. The methodological path follows three different analyzes. First, the conflict analysis verified the study area's existing conflicts through the Prospective and Decision Support Theory programs (MICMAC and MACTOR). Second, the study used CA (Cellular Automata) to observe and model land­use trends and changes and simulate future scenarios. At the same time, the third stage (risk analysis) used the future scenarios (obtained in the previous step), Brazil’s Water Security Index, and the Drought Monitor data to analyze the risks capable of compromising water security Brazilian Semiarid Region. The results identified key actors and variables in the system and predictive maps of anthropic growth between 1986 and 2045. Finally, the results enabled an adjustment to the Water Security Index for 2035, including the risk associated with anthropization and drought events. The results generated in this research may contribute to one of the main challenges for water resources management: to provide a predictive approach capable of assisting planners and decision­makers in solving complex problems. It also allows considering the different interest groups confronted by continually changing uncertain conditions.