SILVA FILHO, J. A.; http://lattes.cnpq.br/7619919361909642; SILVA FILHO, José Adalberto da Silva.
Abstract:
The extreme hydrological conditions and increasing water demands observed in
Brazil semiarid have generated conflicts regarding the best use of existing water
resources. Synthetic generation models of river flows are often used as support for
the definition of water system operating rules, which allow the establishment of
rationing rules before water scarcity spells. This work aims at verifying the
applicability of models based on self-organizing maps (SOM) for stochastic modeling
of monthly river flows. The basic principle of the study consisted of using SOM
models in order to determine the deterministic component of river flow series and a
density probability function (stochastic component) to represent the resulting
residuals. The results were promising, indicating that the tested models are capable
of producing synthetic series of inflows with excellent performance.
