Modelagem estocástica de vazões mensais via mapas de Kohonen.

Abstract

The extreme hydrological conditions and increasing water demands observed in Brazil semiarid have generated conflicts regarding the best use of existing water resources. Synthetic generation models of river flows are often used as support for the definition of water system operating rules, which allow the establishment of rationing rules before water scarcity spells. This work aims at verifying the applicability of models based on self-organizing maps (SOM) for stochastic modeling of monthly river flows. The basic principle of the study consisted of using SOM models in order to determine the deterministic component of river flow series and a density probability function (stochastic component) to represent the resulting residuals. The results were promising, indicating that the tested models are capable of producing synthetic series of inflows with excellent performance.