CORDEIRO, I. N. A.; http://lattes.cnpq.br/0407800844819382; CORDEIRO, Ilis Nunes Almeida.
Resumo:
Stochastic prediction procedures have been used for the past several decades to model
solar irradiance. The most widely used procedures include integrated moving averages,
autoregressive models, Beta and Weibull distributions to model hourly radiation. This thesis
proposes a new methodology for probabilistic assessment of Photovoltaic power system
production based on the Generalized Extreme Value distribution which is quite flexible and
was able to model every hour in every season in Campina Grande. Furthermore, a reliability
assessment utilizing Monte Carlo Methods was conducted to evaluate the performance of the
hardware composing a photovoltaic System, a comparative study was conducted between a
vulnerable system that can fail and another system that is always available, the difference
between the failure probabilities is greater than 22%, which demonstrates the importance in
considering the system availability in order to gather accurate results. Finally, the solar
irradiance model and the system availability model were then combined with the IEEEReliability
Test System load model to finally measure the photovoltaic system reliability
when installed in Campina Grande. When comparing the capacity of power generation of the
panels and the demand for electricity of a residence, an eight panels photovoltaic system is
able to maintain a less than 10% failure probability between 9 a.m. and 1p.m., a fifteen panel
system, on the other hand, is able to maintain a less than 10% failure probability between 9
a.m. and 2 p.m..