Fluxo de carga probabilístico com geração fotovoltaica utilizando estimativa de densidade Kernel.

Abstract

The methods of Monte Carlo Method and Power Sum were combined in a computational routine of probabilistic load flow in radial distribution networks with photovoltaic generation. The loads and the active power generated by photovoltaic power plants are input random variables. The loads have normal distribution and the probability density function and cumulative distribution function of the active power generated are obtained through real data using the kernel density estimate. The developed computational routine is applied in the power flow on the 33-bus test system from IEEE with the insertion of one and then two photovoltaic power plants, both in winter and summer. Then a comparative analysis of the scenarios were made.