Previsão da distribuição espacial dos casos de dengue no Estado de Alagoas a partir da precipitação obtida por modelos atmosféricos regionais.

Abstract

Along the times it has been registering her a narrow relationship between the climatic conditions and her interference in the man's health. It is known that a connection exists between different meteorological situations and the emergence of certain diseases as the primness, that is a disease viral of short duration, variable gravity, that it happens in the tropical and subtropical areas, where there are conditions for the development of the mosquito transmitter. The objective of this work is to establish a system that allows to foresee the space distribution of cases of primness in the State of Alagoas, for which, the forecast of the seasonal precipitation is accomplished with success by the atmospheric models. For the accomplishment of the model of forecast of the space distribution of cases of primness it was made a multiple regression using the monthly totals of precipitation observed in the State of Alagoas, daily and monthly totals of notified cases of primness in the state and monthly Values of Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Temperature of the Surface of the Sea (TSM) of Atlântico Ocean Norte and South, these last ones extracted of Climate Diagnostics Bulletin Near Real - Team analyses Ocean/Atmosphere, besides the data described above, she became necessary to the use of precipitation values foreseen starting from the reduction of scale of precipitation of the global model ECHAM 4.5, for the regional scale through the model RSM (downscaling), later it was ended that the space distribution of the monthly precipitation and the cases of primness foreseen in the mesoregion of Alagoas during the period of the study evidenced the existent relationship among that meteorological variable and this disease that it is transmitted by vectors that are linked to the climatic variations. It was also noticed that extreme events like La Nina, observed during the year of 2000, influence in the totals pluviométricos observed on the Brazilian Northeast as a whole, and indirectly they are linked in the amount and distribution of the notified cases and foreseen of the disease. The forecast of the precipitation using the model RSM approached enough to the values observed on Alagoas during the study period, just in some places of the Rural and Interior from Alagoas, it was noticed an on-estimate of the foreseen values. With the intention of analyzing the mistake committed by the model of forecast of the space distribution of the cases of primness, the mistakes were made calculations committed in the forecast being used for that, the foreseen and observed medium deviation of the cases of primness. It was also concluded that the model used for the forecast of the space distribution of the primness resembled each other also the reality observed in this area, meantime besides the variables used for the elaboration of the multiple regression, it would be also convenient the use of another varied meteorological as temperature and relative humidity of the air to reach a better accuracy in the future forecasts