Abordagem cumulativa e plurianual das secas no nordeste brasileiro: proposta metodológica de gestão proativa.

Abstract

Droughts affect regions across the planet, and their effects can impact the environment, society, and the economy. The phenomenon has been intensifying due to climate change that, associated with reactive management and vulnerability of the areas, makes living with drought an even more significant challenge, which happens in the Northeast region of Brazil (NEB). Therefore, the thesis aims to verify which NEB areas recorded severe, extreme, and exceptional cumulative multi-year drought from July/2014 to June/2019 and determine the most impacted municipalities from the point of view of water supply and agricultural activities. Finally, proactive measures are proposed to enable preparation and management before, during, and after the event. To this end, the methodology is divided into four stages: the spatialization of droughts and their associated impacts, under a cumulative multi-year perspective, and guiding management in a proactive cycle that allows for coexistence with the phenomenon. The results reveal that between July/ 2014 and June/ 2019, more than 75% of the NEB registered exceptional drought for at least 1 (one) month over the 5 (five) years analyzed and that the entire Northeast registered severe drought for, at least 5 months. This scenario pointed to impacts on the water supply, which resulted in a collapse of the supply systems and accentuated agricultural losses. Notably, 99.0%, among the 1,794 municipalities that make up the NEB, had their herds, cultures, or human supply compromised, with emergency decrees or rationing measures. Despite the recurrence of drought phenomena in the region, management policies are still reactive and point to emergency solutions. The multi-year cumulative analysis provided support for formulating a multi-scale disaster monitoring system, determining vulnerable priority areas that the government neglects. This approach also pointed to proactive measures for managing droughts, replacing reactive management that acts after the phenomenon's occurrence.