Estimativa de uso de água a partir de cenários de uso e ocupação do solo urbano.

Abstract

The accelerated growth of cities associated with the absence of urban planning sensitive to water resources can lead to numerous impacts on infrastructure services, especially in water supply systems. Therefore, the generation of future scenarios to obtain an estimate of the increase of water demand over the years is essential for an efficient urban planning, and can help in the development of plans that make it possible to indicate guidelines that are more appropriate to the environment urban. Thereby, the objective of this work was to estimate the future water demand of the Itararé district, located in the city of Campina Grande, using current land use and occupation data, and four future scenarios produced through water consumption estimated for the population projection of the neighborhood in the short term, t = 5 years; and Medium term, t = 10 years. For this purpose, geotechnologies, such as QGIS software, were used to generate the current spatial consumption of water in the neighborhood and the Google Earth Pro visualization platform that assisted in the study of the evolution of the built area. The temporal analysis of the occupation of the study area showed a great rise of the built area in the period from 2005 to 2018 and the estimation of water demand for the future scenarios presented an 11% increase in water consumption between the short, and medium term. In comparison to current water demand, the future scenarios predicted through the population projection of the neighborhood by the AiBi method indicated that the Itararé neighborhood already has a demand for water higher than that projected for 5 years, evidencing the change in the growth dynamics of the neighborhood over the years.