Otimização estocástica implícita e teoria dos jogos cooperativos para operação mensal de reservatórios com múltiplos usos.

Abstract

The construction of reservoirs is a solution to alleviate problems related to droughts, floods, and the demand for water for various activities. These structures are managed based on operating rules that, in addition to being practical and dynamic, must consider the hydrological variability in the system, user needs, and environmental conditions. Thus, the present work proposes a model based on Implicit Stochastic Optimization (ISO) and Cooperative Game Theory (CGT) for the monthly operation of multipurpose reservoirs. The proposed methodological procedure can be summarized in two steps: (1) derivation of operational rules by ISO to define the maximum allocation available considering all uses in the reservoir; and (2) distribution of available allocation by CGT. To apply the ISO model, the inflows to the water system were generated by the Method of Fragments and the rules defined by non-linear regression. To validate the methodology, the ISO-CGT model was applied to the Curema-Mãe D'Água water system, located in semiarid Brazil. The results were evaluated based on a vulnerability indicator, pointing out that the ISO rules are superior to the standard operating policy, known as SOP (Standard Operating Policy). The study also demonstrated, through efficiency and stability metrics, that the ISO-CGT model generated solutions with greater acceptability, showing potential to avoid or resolve conflicts over water use.