XAVIER, M. R.; http://lattes.cnpq.br/1310231592323128; XAVIER, Micaely Rodrigues.
Résumé:
This term paper aims to describe conceptual aspects and systematize methodological
indications of time series analysis, as well as its application in order to predict future
scenarios related to the evolution of the number of cases of Tuberculosis in Paraíba, by
highlighting some factors that can change the distribution or behavior of this disease in the
State. Predicting the future time is a first and clear application of time series analysis. In fact,
this analysis provides a prediction of the future values of the series. However, uncertainty
about future estimates is greater the further one gets from the present, and unexpected
intercurrences are more or less common in human activities, which imply additional risk of
unanticipated error. It is noteworthy that the Box-Jenkins model was essential to estimate and
predict the future data of tuberculosis cases in State of Paraíba. It resulted in a sequence
aspect to the graph from the predicted data, in addition to a considerable value of confidence
interval.