Aplicação do modelo matemático de águas subterrâneas no aquífero aluvial da Bacia do Rio Sucuru: calibração e simulação de cenários.

Abstract

This work has as study area a section of the alluvial aquifer of the Sucuru River, aiming at calibration and application of a mathematical model of simulation as support for the management of water resources. For this, the improvement, and calibration of a previously developed mathematical model was carried out, using Feflow software, with groundwater level monitoring data, in order to obtain better conductivity data for subsequent applications. Initial analyzes, calibration and simulation of scenarios were performed. Significant improvements were made to topographic data and data analysis. With the initial analyzes it was possible to identify fast recharge patterns and lower discharge rates. Calibration showed correlation coefficients higher than 0.93, and the presence of zones with high conductivity variability, as well as better conductive zones of similar behavior, such as zones 1 and 3, as well as worse conductive zones whose behavior suggests a decrease in conductivity according to the increase in levels, zones 5 The scenarios analysis showed for scenario 1 a decrease of 8.6% and volumes of 88.86 thousand m³ of evapotranspiration, and for scenario 2, a decrease of 13% with volumes of 90.4 thousand m³ of evapotranspiration, referring to the first 90 days. It is concluded from the calibrated model that the Sumé aquifer is able to meet up to two crop cycles referring to the areas of the current lots, without recharging, in the first scenario; and guarantees at least a harvest for a reactivation of 1/4 of the maize and grass areas of the former irrigated perimeter.