Impactos do El niño - oscilação sul no potencial eólico do Nordeste brasileiro: uma análise em condições atmosféricas com e sem a influência do Atlântico Tropical Sul.

Abstract

The present work was developed with the purpose of evaluating the impacts caused by ENOS (El Niño - South Oscillation) and TSM anomalies in the South Tropical Atlantic (ATS) on NEB's wind potential. To this end, it was assumed that significant variations in the wind pattern in this region may result from a joint effect of TSM anomalies in the South Tropical Atlantic and TSM anomalies in the Tropical Pacific. The analyzes were concentrated in the quarter, December, January and February (DJF), from the period 1980 to 2000. Special focus was given to ENOS episodes characterized by the simultaneous occurrence of positive anomalies of the sea surface temperature in the South Tropical Atlantic (AAT ++), in El Niño episodes, and negative SST anomalies in the South Tropical Atlantic (AAT- -), in La Niña episodes. To achieve the objectives, high spatial resolution data from the reanalysis of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts from the ERA-5 Land data set for NEB and also for the INMET weather station located in Petrolina-PE were used. The results indicate that the simultaneous occurrence of anomalies in the Tropical Pacific and Tropical South Atlantic causes significant variations in wind intensity in the Northeast region of Brazil. In the Petrolina-PE area, it was found that in El Niño episodes the winds are relatively more intense. However, the simultaneous occurrence of AAT ++ (positive anomalies in the South Tropical Atlantic), in these cases, contributes to reduce the intensity of the Wind. On the other hand, in the La Niña episodes, the presence of AAT- - (negative anomalies in the South Tropical Atlantic) contributes to the strengthening of the wind, characterizing favorable conditions for the production of wind energy in the region.