Impactos da Variabilidade Hidroclimática no Semiárido Brasileiro.

Abstract

Climate change, land use change, population growth, among other factors, have a direct impact on the availability of water and the vulnerability of water resources. Due to the irregularity of the rainfall regime, northeastern Brazil is one of the regions most sensitive to climate change, characterized by water shortages both for the natural system and for human use. Given the need for information to assist in the management of climatic risk and in the planning of water use in the Lower São Francisco River Basin (BHSRSF), this work quantitatively assessed the hydroclimatic vulnerability of the BHSRSF through the Factor Analysis (AF) technique for the construction of the Water Vulnerability Index (IVH). Water scarcity was analyzed using the Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at different time scales. It was observed that, in general, the basin presents water vulnerability, subject to the increase of fresh water restrictions and there was a predominance of dry events. In agriculture, the impacts of the water deficit are more significant, as this is highly influenced by climatic factors, compromising producers, who are more vulnerable to economic and environmental changes.