Estimativa e tendências de índices de detecção de mudanças climáticas com base na precipitação diária no Rio Grande do Norte e na Paraíba.

Abstract

The objective of this work is to eompute and to analyze the tendencies of the climates changes detection indices, dependent of the daily,I pluvial precipitation, delined by OMM, on the states of Rio Grande do Norte and Paraiba, as well as, to analyze their relationships with NDVL with the SST anoinnlies in the areas of Nino HZ, Nino 3. TNA and TSA and with areas of agricultural production of the Agreste, Forest Zone and Coast Areas and of the Semi-and Area. For reach the objectives were used daily precipitation data from 44 sites from the SUDENE and from the meteorology state centers, which presented data with reliable quality and represent all the areas of both States? besides presenting & good space distribution. Data of WDN. of areas of agricultural production and of SST anomalies also were used. The obtained resulte showed a predominant increase in the indices Consecutive Wet Days (CWB), Annual Total Wet—Day Precipitanon (PRCFFOT), Max l-day precipitation amount (Rxlday) and Extreniely wet days (Room. The Consecutive Dry Day (CDD) tendencies are correlated with the conditions of the Atlantic Ocean, while the indices of extreme precipitations (Roãp and Rxãday) showed conelaiions with statistical significance of ooo-fo With the two areas of the Pacific Ocean and with the area TNA of the Atlantic Ocean. The indices CWD, very wet days (ÍR9Sp) and 'Max S—day precipitation amount (Rxãdayl presented signilicnnt correlations with NDR-"l of the two analyzed areas. lt is concluded that there was an increase of the (TWD on both States, the annual total precipitation increased however with “smaller extreme events, as well as, the. Rxlday and the RQQp. With that, the alterations in the climatic regimes show a global character, however it cannot be iatl'irrned categorically that these tendencies are related with a global change of the climate, because“ negative and positive tendenciee for isolated places were verified in all the analyzed indexes what demonstrates the regional aspect, ln (agreement with the obtained results it can be obeewed that the perfomance of ENOS has great influence on the climate of NEE, mainly on the. extreme events. The maximum event intensity demonstrated good correlation with the. dynamice of the vegetation. While: the harvested area of agricultura! production ofthe Semi-afin region,, of both States. it is related with DCU and extreme ptecipitations.