Metodologia para estimação da curva de carga de unidades consumidoras individuais.

Abstract

In this undergraduate thesis, a bottom-up methodology is presented to estimate hourly load profiles for individual consumers. The methodology is based on the data of ownership and use habits of appliances that are present in the dwellings as well as the historical data of total electricity consumption in the study region. The database used is from the Survey of Electrical Equipment Ownership and Usage Habits in the Residential Class, elaborated by the National Electricity Conservation Program in 2019 and from the Distribution Consumption and Revenue Reports from the National Electric Energy Agency. In the development of the methodology, historical electric energy consumption data were considered, as well as climatic factors related to the use of cooling equipment to evaluate seasonality in the consumption profile of consumers. In order to validate the proposed methodology, a study case was performed based on the elaboration of the load profile for consumers in the state of Paraíba. The results for the region showed a lower consumption in the first hours of the day, followed by an increase in the morning and afternoon, reaching maximum values during the early evening, at 7 pm. The resulting data was extrapolated to estimate the monthly consumption of individuals as well as total electrical energy consumption of the residential class in Paraíba. A comparison between the estimated values and the real data was conducted, resulting in a percentage error of less than 4% and 19%, respectively, and a coefficient of determination of approximately 0.80. The proposed methodology enables the estimation of hourly load profiles for consumers from different regions, states and economic classes as well as the evaluation of the impacts of different types of electrical appliance on the consumption profile of residential consumers, facilitating specific energy efficiency studies.