ALMEIDA, J.M.V. de.; http://lattes.cnpq.br/9158221546122615; ALMEIDA, Josefa Morgana Viturino de.
Abstract:
The extreme cold/heat events may significantly influence society, including damage to
health. Likewise, the human thermal comfort is highly dependent on climatic conditions.
The objective of this work was to establish a methodology for the monitoring and
predictability of the level of human thermal comfort in all regions of Brazil, clarify the
climatology of the UTCI (Universal Thermo-climatic Index), investigated the existence of
temporal tendency and the temporal behavior of the number of uncomfortable days. The
Mann-Kendall test was used to evaluate the trends of serious temporal events. Was used
211 meteorological stations of the INMET’s network from 1984 to 2014, reanalysis data
from the ERA-Interim and the COSMO model. It is concluded that the UTCI reproduces
the seasonal variations of comfort levels/thermal discomfort throughout Brazil. Its hourly
climatology resembles the spatial and temporal characteristics of the air temperature
climatology. Regarding the existence of temporal trend, it was observed that,
approximately 90% of the meteorological stations present a statistically significant positive
tendency of the average, maximum and minimum UTC at 18 UTC by the Mann-Kendall
test. In all five-reference stations, it was found that mornings are warmer, with a
statistically significant trend in the number of hot days, as a result of positive trends in
seasonal winter UTCI; And that the evenings are also warmer, especially in winter. In
Brasília, São Paulo and Porto Alegre, there were negative trends in the number of cold
days. Żinally, the UTCI was able to reproduce extreme events of cold/heat that occurred
recently in Brazil (Żebruary 2014 and July 2013) and its operationalization, on the
INMET’s scope, is possible; necessitating a set of computational tools that connect data
from stations meteorological model and the 7km COSMO numerical model.