SANTANA, C. F. D.; http://lattes.cnpq.br/7916729062952119; SANTANA, Cícero Fellipe Diniz de.
Abstract:
Some of the main challenges faced in the water resources management have been the difficulty
in measuring the risks that reservoir systems are subject, given the various possibilities of
hydrological scenarios. Risk analysis as a tool to support decision-making has used
methodologies that contribute to a better allocation of water for multiple uses and objectives,
with emphasis on mathematical-computational modeling, including technical-operational and
legal aspects, which are important in defining efficient strategies for the proper use of water
while minimizing system failures. This work aimed to apply the decision tree model and
stochastic simulation for the risk analysis of a surface reservoir system. The methodology was
based on the use of synthetic precipitation and flow data generation, which were later used in
water balance simulations, where the risk indicators were calculated and the decision tree model
was applied, using the reliability of the system as a dependent variable. The research was
applied to the region of the upper course of the Piranhas-PB River, with emphasis on the
Engenheiro Ávidos – São Gonçalo reservoir system. The obtained results made it possible to
make a diagnosis of the operation and the identification of critical points for not meeting the
required flows by the demands of the system. It was possible to establish a relationship between
the reliability and the allocation of flows, as well as the precipitation and the volume of the
reservoirs, indicating patterns in the hydrological conditions that led to the worst and best
percentages of reliability. The decision trees achieved satisfactory performance and robustness
in predicting the risk for the demands and operating scenarios, which is important for
identifying the best decision-making in the planning of water resources.
