SILVA, A. P. G.; http://lattes.cnpq.br/7976940783913063; SILVA, Ana Patrícia Gomes.
Resumen:
The increase in urbanization working in conjunction with climate change, nowadays,
has intensified the problems arising from urban floods due to increased flows. Thus,
rainfall series are used to estimate the flow of flood through synthetic models due to
the scarcity of fluviometric data. This research aims to estimate project flows by the
Gradex method for a macrodrainage channel in a scenario prior to current climate
change, with the one used in the ANA series, and another that encompasses climate
change, with the ESA series. The results show that the flows had their values
increased by about 1.7 times, because for the first scenario the flow was 147.2 m³/s
and for the second of 248 m³/s. The bottom width of the channel was about 60% higher
for the most recent data. This was achieved by the manipulation of the historical rainfall
series of ANA and AESA, application of the alternating block method as temporal
distribution of intense rainfall, the CN method of the SCS as determination of the
effective rainfall and the Santa Barbara method in the generation of hydrograms. It is
concluded that the consideration of climate change in hydraulic dimensioning
generates a considerable volume of surface flow, which makes it necessary to
constantly update the IDF curves used. In addition, it is necessary to adopt flood control
measures and formulate a rainwater drainage plan when it does not exist.
