Influência da vulnerabilidade socioeconômica e climática nos processos de degradação das terras do Estado do Rio Grande do Norte.

Abstract

The state of Rio Grande do Norte (RGN) faces processes of deforestation of areas with native vegetation, intense use of land, both in agriculture and livestock, this problem should not be seen only as an environmental issue, but a problem of transdisciplinary character and effects, areas of social, economic, political, environmental and cultural order. The present work aimed to analyze the socioeconomic vulnerability in the municipalities of the State of RGN, from descriptor variables of two main dimensions: Socioeconomic and Demographic, as well as to understand the space-time dynamics of land use and coverage in the micro-regions of the State of RGN, in the period from 1985 to 2018. The variables included in the study are from the 2010 demographic census of the (IBGE) and the Annual Mapping Project of Land Use and Land Cover in Brazil. The methodology was based on the application of multivariate statistics from the factor analysis technique, as well as cluster analysis, generated through the amplitude of forest cover, Mann-Kendall trend, Sen and homogeneity tests were applied, the tabular database in area (Ha), of land cover and land use was used, as well as, annual time series of forest cover. The 5 main forces acting on the vulnerability process in the municipalities of the RGN state, are: Gini Index (93,4%); Theil Index (97,3%) (socioeconomic dimension); Population 25 years or + (99,8%) and Total Population (99,9%) (demographic dimension); EspVnas (99,8%) and MoInf (98,8%) (longevity dimension). The logic of vulnerability in the state was defined by factors that condition the capacity to work and the proportion of the population in relation to the occupation of the territory, predominantly in areas with higher economic value and higher population numbers. Only 22 of the municipalities present low socioeconomic vulnerability, according to the socioeconomic vulnerability index (IVS > 0.43). In relation to forest cover, some microregions presented significant reduction in coverage. They were, Serra de São Miguel, Umarizal, Chapada do Apodi, Médio Oeste and Mossoró, in 2010 and 2013 were Vale do Açu, Angicos, Médio Oeste, Mossoró, Macau, Baixa Verde and Litoral Nordeste. The greatest variability in forest cover loss (Caatinga), was in Mossoró, Médio Oeste, Borborema Potiguar and Pau dos Ferros. Mossoró and Serra do Mel were the municipalities that lost the most cover, however, Serra Negra do Norte, Caicó, São João do Sabugi and São Fernando gained the most cover. Pau dos Ferros, Umarizal, Seridó Ocidental, Serra de Santana and Macau, had (p-value <0.05) loss of Caatinga cover, as well as, loss of cover during the period from 2001 to 2017 and 1978 to mid-2018, after the year 2000 an increase in Caatinga cover was observed (2001 to 2009), among 9 years (2010 to 2017), of the period studied.